High-Resolution Modeling and Projecting Local Dynamics of Differential Vulnerability to Urban Heat Stress

Heat stress is a major risk factor for human health, especially in cities where more people are exposed to increasingly higher temperatures in summer. Cities are usually hotter than their surrounding rural areas due to the predominance of dark, impervious surfaces which absorb more heat. Assessing heat risks for public health requires measurements of the hazard, such as a prolonged period with high temperatures, the population exposed to the hazard and characteristics of populations that make them more vulnerable to heat related diseases or even death. Various approaches and tools for risk assessment have been developed, but most of them focus on the hazard and exposure components. In this paper, we measure and project vulnerability to heat stress in alternative scenarios, using different population characteristics, such as age, sex and education. Our results show that there are compelling differences between areas within the city of Madrid and that areas that are vulnerable today will become even more vulnerable unless we follow a path of sustainable development. Detailed assessments of the spatial distribution of vulnerability within a city are relevant for developing adaptation solutions that target vulnerable populations and are thus more effective in reducing heat-related risks.

More information on this new tool that provides knowledge on heat stress vulnerability in cities for more targeted adaptation can be found here.

The article can be found here.

To quote: Marginean, I., Crespo Cuaresma, J., Hoffmann, R., Muttarak, R., Gao, J., & Daloz, A. S. (2024). High-resolution modeling and projecting local dynamics of differential vulnerability to urban heat stress. Earth’s Future, 12, e2024EF004431. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004431